Barclays Capital Equity Gilt Study 2007 ist die 52ste Ausgabe von Barclays Capital’s Flaggschiff-Publikation und eines der ältesten und angesehensten Financial Research Publikationen der Londoner City. Sie versorgt den Investor mit Analysen zur Performance von Kapitalanlagen in den USA und Großbrittanien. Dabei richtet sie immer den Blick auf die längerfristigen Trends.
Schon im letzten Jahr publiziert, bin ich erst jetzt auf sie gestoßen und finde sie immer noch einen Lesetipp wert. Denn das erste Kapitel beschäftigt sich mit der „energy revolution“, die nun möglich und notwendig sei durch Klimawandel und Knappheit an Öl und Gas.
Ein kurzer Auszug als Appetitanreger (Hervorhebungen durch mich):
When the history books are written, the past couple of years are likely to be seen as an inflexion point in the global economic order. In support of this somewhat portentous claim, we cite the following two observations. First, the tripling of oil prices and the equally sizeable advances in other energy prices has signalled, with little room for doubt, that there are structural problems in the system that supplies the power for our global economy. Second, 2006 marked a tipping point in public opinion regarding climate change. In confirmation of this sea-change in popular beliefs, no better candidate can be found than the rapid re-positioning of political parties and governments behind the issue, together with the attendant success of such manoeuvres in the polls.
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The energy revolution is not dissimilar in scale to the technology revolution. Meanwhile, the financial world is characterised by a superabundance of return-seeking capital of a scale not seen since the late nineteenth century. If ever the time were ripe for such an energy revolution, it is now. And like all historical adoptions of general purpose technologies, the process should prove immensely stimulative to economic growth. Oddly, the climate change policy debate is couched in terms of the cost to GDP growth. Even the proponents of policy shifts tend to assume a negative effect on growth. This stance is underselling the actual impact of an energy revolution. All of the historical changes in energy supply – from dung to wood to coal to oil – were stimulative for the economy concerned. Every major technological change was accompanied or followed by faster economic growth.
Ein „Wendepunkt der globalen ökonomischen Ordnung“. Interessante Lektüre.
Foto: Barclay's Building in London, Foto von Destinys Agent auf flickr